Predictions

This won't be a legitimate update. Not really. Just thought it would interest some of you to know that I have a stock (and weather) prediction project in my numerical analysis class. We're using Lagrange Polynomials, Hermite Interpolation, and Cubic Spline Interpolation, among other methods, to predict an already known price of AAPL stock. We'll then compare the approximation with the actual price and thus calculate the error.

BTW: I definitely wouldn't recommend using Lagrange Polynomials for calculating future stock prices. I probably wouldn't use any of these methods for serious stock analysis (especially when depending only on closing prices), but I'll leave that until all has been calculated.

Predictions

This won't be a legitimate update. Not really. Just thought it would interest some of you to know that I have a stock (and weather) prediction project in my numerical analysis class. We're using Lagrange Polynomials, Hermite Interpolation, and Cubic Spline Interpolation, among other methods, to predict an already known price of AAPL stock. We'll then compare the approximation with the actual price and thus calculate the error.

BTW: I definitely wouldn't recommend using Lagrange Polynomials for calculating future stock prices. I probably wouldn't use any of these methods for serious stock analysis (especially when depending only on closing prices), but I'll leave that until all has been calculated.

Been a while

Just wanted to say that discipline is 75%* of the game.

*or so

Clock In

I've been playing the .25/.50 tables for the last week or two and have raked in winnings of $200 (400 BBs or four buyins). At the moment I am sticking to a single table in order to maximally exploit all opponents and maintain focus. There are extended moments where I instinctively know exactly how much to bet in order to make an opponent fold or call and sometimes even raise (slightly more difficult, for me at least). I get in the zone.

In order to maintain the zone for longer periods of time, I'm doing all I can to think and rethink various plays when I'm not at the tables. If I can continue to train my actions, I hope to be able to instinctively act upon the myriads of scenarios that emerge while at the felt.

Anyway, the goal is $300. Then I am taking all profits out. I'm then planning on aiming for $1,000 after which I'll withdraw $500 and move to the .50/1 tables. I'd like to have enough to open an S&P e-mini account by the end of the year.

We'll see; I have a lot of school work and miscellaneous obligations at the moment. I'd really love to post some hand histories with commentary. I'm trying to get out a little bit more too. More, hopefully, very soon.

No Excuses.

Position Sizing

One thing I find helpful about no limit poker in relation to trading is position sizing. Every hand you play requires you to decide how much you're willing to risk. Sure, you can bet the same amount each time, but, as many new players will soon find out, that does little to nothing to limit your losses, throw off opponents or maximize your gains. If you do not know how much to bet and when, you're going to be at a severe disadvantage.

The more thought and attention I give to trading, I'm finding the same to be true. If you are able to control the amount you put into play depending on the context and conditions surrounding a trade, you can minimize risk and maximize potential profit. Say you are uncertain about a specific trade. Why not cut down the amount you're willing to risk on it? There's no real need to risk the same amount on every trade. If you're confident about a trade, put on some more money. As your confidence increases, add to your position. As it decreases, subtract some off.

Being able to successfully manage risk in this manner increases your strengths and decreases your weaknesses. Put your money where it's going to win.

1/3

I read somewhere that true poker sharks play about 30% of their hands. Of course, such stats vary depending on a number of things. At first, I was skeptical. But, the more I play the more I realize the necessity of playing more than the prime hands. For one, people will begin to pick up on your hand range fairly soon if all you play are the top ~10% of hands. Because of this, they won't pay you off for those hands. They'll wait until they have the advantage with some underdog and try to get you to pay them off.

If you play a wider range of hands, however, your opponents will have a tougher time guessing your current hand among all your other hands. Such play not only allows you to benefit when the flop contains nothing for either player, but also allows you to reap the benefits of stronger hands that others may at times hesitate to play against.

Playing this way is much harder, which is probably why most will not play like this. It is hard to remain tight, as tightness requires a good ability to read hands. You need to know hold an edge over your opponent by being able to pick out what he is likely to have and how much you should risk against him or her this round. That's the only way you can remain tight while playing a wider range of hands. And to increase your effectiveness, you need to be aggressive more frequently. Say you think both you and your opponent missed the flop, but you at least have an ace high or find that your opponent folds more frequently than he should. Then bet. You have an edge; don't let it go to waste.

PS: Gotten back into poker over the last couple of days. I see so much improvement in my game, both intellectually and emotionally. I really hope to achieve this level on the trading field some day.