Some Numbers for the End of the Month

- total trades: 30
- winning trades: 21
- losing trades: 9
- break even trades: 0
- percent win: 70
- percent loss: 30

- starting balance: $27.95
- ending balance: $38.70
- total profit: $10.75 (107.5 pips)
- percentage gain: 38.5

Next month, I'd like to work on collecting more pips per trade and on minimizing draw down. Hopefully I can hold onto current profits while increasing my overall account size, all in my quest to become a hundredaire. Or something like that...

Brain (Age) Fart

What's wrong with this image from Brain Age 2 (for the GameboyDS)?

Hiatus?

Well, not entirely. I'm just taking a hiatus from putting in orders (driving the bat mobile). I'll be doing some quantitative explorations in the meantime. Up my edge a little, hopefully. And I'll be sharing it with you lucky folks (or unlucky if it dulls your edge). More in a day or two.

Hmm...

Just left it on. One of these will end up hurting me for more than my account can take. Need to rework my entry methodology, because I know that taking small stop loss losses will eat up my gains too...bleh. ($37.70; ~34.5%)

Stress

I should've taken profit when it hit 1.2960, but I'll take it today instead. That's 36.9 pips in what could've turned out to be a mess. But, I kept myself calm by reminding myself of the US bank stress tests. They wouldn't let the Euro down. I'm not sure traders will respect the tests, though. And there's a strong downtrend...we'll see. (Act: $36.77; 31.5% gain)

Loss

Bigger than it had to be too. I just couldn't help myself and put on two more trades. Oh well. Basically, maxloss day for me (no more than 3 losing trades in a row).

And Another

I saw that large bearish flag forming on the hourly and put in a short on the five minute. I've been sick, so I went to sleep (again) and woke up in the middle of the night, which is when I took the screen shot. Anyway, I thought it was a fairly safe 15 pip gain. This puts me at $35.69 or 27.7%. Getting a little better, but still have quite a bit of summer work. We'll see how it goes from here.

Slept on it

Figured it would head back up to 1.3, but didn't want to be too greedy. I set my limit at ~1.298 with an entry at ~1.296, and went to sleep. When I woke up I had made out with a 20.2 pip gain. Biggest gain yet, as I am becoming somewhat more comfortable. We'll see how long I can keep it up. At $34.19 or 22.3% ($6.24) gain from the beginning.

Bleh

I should've taken my 3pips. Oh well. Bought before the breakout and didn't want to hold because I figured it could go lower. No more trading today. I'm still kinda sick and need to do some homework.

Closing this Week Out

I'm feeling a little sick, so I'm going to close the week with this trade. Got 4.2 pips, and also worked on my bad habit of entering too soon/late (basically: wait for the pullback, thus limiting risk). More next next week (and probably this weekend).

Update (well, forgot to put account totals): Currently at $32.68 or a ~17% ($4.73) increase from the start. Now, I think I can just about go into StarBucks and buy a latte.

Gotta Have Faith

Bad night. I came home tired and made those two stupid trades. Then I sobered up and decided to nap. I came back, and while not much better. I did manage to make the money back and a fraction of a pip more. No more trading (five trade per day rule). I'll do some more tomorrow.

Gotta have faith in yourself:



Well...something like that.

Back in Five

I have some studying I have to do, so no trading today. I'll be back at it tomorrow.

Two Misses, A Hit

Not sure I'm feeling up to talking much about this. The first two trades were losses caused largely by indecision. I held onto the third trade through a bit of a rough patch (probably more than I should've). But it worked.

The math comes to (-4.4) + (-3.4) + 9.4 = 1.6 pips. And I'm pooped...

Update: Last one for the night. 3.4 pips (cut a little too soon, probably).

Short

6.5 pip profit shorting the Euro. They way it has been acting, it could probably fall further. But, I'm not ready to start taking longer duration positions yet.

Account now at $31.68 or a gain of 13.3%.

PS: Reading Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas. Read it a while back, but enjoying it again.

Too Late, Terrible Wait, Some Profit

The drop as the market opened today (Sunday) felt like a solid drop. There were no bottoms put in--just bars of consolidation previously formed. Anyway, I made a terrible trade. I waited too long to take a risk and when I took it I was unwilling to take a small loss. Perhaps that's me intellectualizing it; I probably would've taken a small loss if the drops were less steep or if some sort of bottom formed after I shorted. What I really needed to do was wait for a slight pull back and then short. But I missed one, and didn't feel like missing another.

I took a risk, and if I didn't have the entire market pushing lower behind me, I would've been screwed. This is why you should never go in without knowing the larger context. The more time frames you have working in your favor the better off you are.

The top screen is of my (way too long in duration) short trade. I finally took a profit of 5.6 pips on that.

The bottom screen is of the EURUSD in the daily time frame. It is either taking a pull back, or forming a top. Who the hell knows which it is? I'd say that there's a greater likelihood of a pullback, given the precipitous drop that has taken place over the last few months and what looks like a bottom forming (basically, I'm going to wait for some sort of bottom formation on the smaller time frames and then start taking more long positions).

But, then there's evidence that the Euro may be heading towards parity with the dollar. I'm not really qualified to speak much about this idea in depth. Maybe I'll delve into it some other time (for intellectual stimulation); but, what really matters to traders is being able to read and interpret a chart.

We're not economists.

Inspiration from Jordan

Why not take some advice from a great? Some quotes from Michael Jordan on success:

- "I've missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed."

- "If you accept the expectations of others, especially negative ones, then you will never change the outcome."

- "I've always believed that if you put in the work, the results will come. I don't do things half-heartedly. Because I know if I do, then I can expect half-hearted results."

- "Some people want it to happen, some wish it would happen, others make it happen."

- "I know fear is an obstacle for some people, but it is an illusion to me. Failure always made me try harder next time."

- "My attitude is that if you push me towards something that you think is a weakness, then I will turn that perceived weakness into a strength."

- "If you're trying to achieve, there will be roadblocks. I've had them; everybody has had them. But obstacles don't have to stop you. If you run into a wall, don't turn around and give up. Figure out how to climb it, go through it, or work around it."

- "I never looked at the consequences of missing a big shot... when you think about the consequences you always think of a negative result."

- "Always turn a negative situation into a positive situation."

And two quintessential MJ videos:

Last Trade of the Week

I like this trade a lot, and I had it set for 5pips, which it would've hit. But my taking 4 pips is a lot better than taking 1-2, so there is improvement. This trade brings the account to $30.47 for a weekly gain of $2.52 (~9%). Not bad for the first week. Still lots of improvement is underway.

PS: I updated the "Sources" to the side and added a few people who link in to me. If you want your site added, let me know (of course, it's always nice that you have me added on yours). As long as you keep some regularity to your updates and have more than a week on board, I'll add you.

Also, I'm also going to try to write some trading material this weekend. We'll see how that goes.

Last trade for the evening (morning?)

Made a 4.4pip trade that I should've held for just a little longer. It was really a good trade overall, but I screwed up in several parts. I got a good entry (I told myself the market would go to 1.2715 and I shorted at 1.2713ish). Good entry. I then stayed in a little too long when I should've taken a quick 6pips. I couldn't tell if the market would fall fast or continue up. Oh well, I stayed in. Luckily I had a comfy position, otherwise I may have been scared out.

I need to realize these moves take a little more time than I am mentally allowing. Anyway, I had a limit order in for 10pips and got out early because I just couldn't handle the stress. Oh well, the market fell to where I thought it would. And! the worst part is the chart looked like it would do that. But I needed to relieve my stress. I think I'm going to study some (not market related) and get some rest.

Account up to $30.07 or +$2.13 (21.3 pips) and about 7.6% overall.

Hmm...

Didn't get in quite as high as I hoped. Tried to eek out a 10pip gain, but came up with a 3.1 pip gain instead. Not great.

Too Slow

Made this trade after hesitating. Bad move. I should've been in 2-3 pips lower. Took a 5.7 pip loss because I wasn't willing to risk any more. Account at $29.32.

No more trading for tonight. I have a few things to do. Will leave FXCM open though.

Poor But Profitable (slightly)

I think we'll be over 1.27 sometime soon, but this trade here was made a little too late for my tastes. I focused on the five minute and didn't pull out to the 15 min until after the entry (although I did check the daily, which motivated my decision to enter yet another long).

You may be saying to yourself (and I know I am), that these scalps are terribly unprofitable. Well, they obviously aren't, albeit a negative trade could definitely hurt (I'm keeping my losses on these trades from 5-10 pips, with a bias towards the 5pip side). But the thing that has me saying that these trades are unprofitable is the amount of money that goes towards the spread. I get a decent spread that can sometimes be below 1pip, but even so, it averages ~2-2.5 which is a large portion of my trade. The only reason I trade them is because I figure I have a decent edge on my side and I want to get my feet wet.

Eventually, I hope to increase the amount my trades take in (a good idea, no doubt). Just giving myself a little time to get back in the game.

Anyway, the trade netted 2.5 pips bringing the account to $29.89 or a total gain of ~6.94%. Hoping for a trade that I can gracefully exit. Then again, the .8pip trade from the other day could fall into that category. I just want to know that I won't hold on long after things have fallen through...we'll see.

PS: Decided to add something on to my rules; I hadn't mentioned how many lots I would trade. Right now I will trade a single lot. Once I am at two times my original account size (27.95*2 = $55.90) I will increase my lot size to two. Should be careful enough.

Another One

Went long on the EURUSD for a 6.9 pip gain, bringing the account to $29.64. I decided to go long for several reasons. First, this market is bullish. Second, the EURUSD had made new highs. Third, this market is strong. I won't make any predictions about tomorrow, but when I saw things this evening a long didn't look too bad.

Anyway, I'm tired and have some studying to do.

PS: If I held on any longer (at least in the short term), looks like I would've given back my gains. Who knows what it will look like in ten minutes, later tomorrow, next thursday or ten years from now. But, luckily, that's not my game.

Take a Read

If you haven't already: Ziad's comment on how to become a successful trader.

A couple others of interest: Why Intelligent People Fail and 52 Prove Stress Reducers.

Update: Spending time watching the market while doing some other miscellaneous activities. Keep it running and make mental comments/guesses as it progresses. Absorb and learn.

Second Trade

All of these are from the same trade, which netted 4.3 pips, boosting my account to $28.87. I'm not letting two (fairly small) trades get to my head. There was nothing all that great about either.

If you look at the first screen, you'll notice what charters like to call an inverted head and shoulders (whether it holds or fails won't be known until later, of course). I don't know a ton about the context surrounding this market at the moment. It appears that the Eur is on a fairly strong momentary upswing, which is one reason my trades (scalps) are so short and hesitant. I keep coming in during "after hours" when the action has calmed downed. I'd rather not get caught in anything too substantial (keep my risks small), because while I could land a nice 100pip run (haha) I am just as likely to see a 100pip run against me. For now, I'll stick with short ~5pip gains until I'm a little more comfortable. For instance, I could've let this one run more. In time.

Right now, I'll let the market soak in.

Update: made another trade. I decided it was a little too impulsive and got myself out with a 0.8 pip profit. I'm going to leave FXCM open but stay out of trading for the rest of the night. Account at $28.95

New Goal

I posted a week back that I had reopened a micro forex account with FXCM. It has a little over $25 in it at the moment ($27.95 to be exact). Because of my rigorous Summer class schedule and the amount of work I've spent on programming a poker bot, I haven't played much poker in the last two months. I'm going to shy away from poker until the bot is fully functional.

At the moment, I'm very interested in financial markets. I posted in a comment to Black Bottle that while poker can help a person develop many useful skills to trade in the market, poker will rarely provide as much of a reward. I'll leave the poker game mostly to the bot until I get a large enough bankroll that playing a couple tables pays better than $5/hr.

Right now, I'd like to develop my forex skills. As they are still underdeveloped and rusty (although I would say somewhat profitable), starting to get back into the game with a $25 account will obviously not be for the money. It will be for the experience and eventual profits.

Now, for my goal: I aim to trade at least once a day for the next six months (excluding some days that will be mentioned beforehand and, of course, any days the markets are closed). That's six days a week, with approximately four weeks to a month: or, 144 trades minimum. I will begin with a limit of five trades a day with no more than three losing trades to prevent steaming.

All of the trades will be kept track of right here. Hopefully, I can keep my head on straight and make it through the great times, the terrible times, and everything in between.

EDIT: (first trade)

This was a quick trade. Definitely nothing I would want to stay in long term (looking at the 2 hr charts). But I played this one because it seemed that the pair had a quick dip and an equally quick recovery on the 15. It had pulled away from the MVA and may make a return. I wish I got in just a few pips higher in order to reduce risk. But it turned out okay. Account now at $28.44 with this 4.9 pip trade.

Further: unsure whether it would continue its push higher or a push lower. Just playing momentum and getting my feet wet.

Self-Knowledge

"Many bad players will not improve because they cannot bear self-knowledge." - David Mamet.

Yesterday, while browsing the local half-priced bookstore, I came across a copy of The Tao of Poker. My eyes widened. I reached out and picked up the copy. For $3.97, I would make a purchase. Something about the book makes me all warm and fuzzy inside. It brings out my desire to make myself a better person (not just a better player). In fact, I've also heard many traders refer to this book; I've heard many people refer to this book.

The Tao of Poker has more than its fair share of treasure contained within.

For example, the quote above. I had not planned on posting until I skimmed across that line. One of the easiest things to do is to block your real self from coming into view. Some people may even know their flaws (intellectually), but they prefer to push those realizations off to the side. It makes for a more comfortable life.

Unfortunately, the true winner, the true master, is willing to look at himself in the mirror in entirety. It is a difficult thing to do, viewing your own humanity. But, self improvement is difficult if you do not allow yourself to see what needs improvement.

It takes strong people.

Goal

"When the opponent expands, I contract; and when he contracts, I expand. And when there is an opportunity, I do not hit, it hits all by itself." - Bruce Lee

PS: I miss me v wallstreet.